Opinion

Pre-MPC Note: Time to Ponder and Adjust

The Monetary Policy Committee will be holding its first meeting in 2017 next week Monday (Jan 23rd) and Tuesday (Jan 24th). The MPC meeting is coming against the backdrop of tightening external market for trade and capital, underlined by the US Fed hike in interest rate in December 2016 (and rise in fixed income yields) which we believe will subdue capital flows into Emerging Markets and Developing Countries in 2017, whilst the uncertainties surrounding the implementation of BREXIT remains a concern.

Disorganised? Chaotic? This is why you should Relax & Embrace your Inefficiency

Do terms like ‘time management,’ ‘productivity,’ or ‘efficiency’ dictate your hectic 21st-century life?

In today’s modern world, the need for optimum efficiency has been championed both at work and at home, backed up by a multitude of apps, articles, books, talks and self-appointed gurus that all pay homage to living life in its neatest, most efficient form.

But what if all that buzz about efficiency was actually, after all that, making us less efficient?

How France can help Africa more

President Muhammadu Buhari has said that the partnership between the African continent and France has yielded fruits in so many positive ways but that France can do more to help Africa overcome its challenges.

In a statement issued at the 27th Africa-France Summit for Partnership, Peace and Emergence taking place in Bamako, Mali, President Buhari said: "Notably, France has been playing important roles in the areas of development as well as peace and security on the African continent.

FX Market Liquidity Challenge to Remain a Drag on Capital Market Performance

The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) held its annual Market Recap and Outlook briefing earlier this week on Thursday, 12th January. The presentation delivered by the CEO of the Exchange, Oscar Onyema, at the session offered investors an opportunity to gauge regulators perspectives of the sentiment drivers in 2016 and projections for performance, regulation and products in 2017.

Nigeria 2017 Budget Review: Optimistic Revenue Assumptions Underpin Ambitious Fiscal Target

During the week, President Buhari presented the 2017 FGN budget before the National Assembly. In line with expectation and similar to 2016, the budget is expansionary as government’s policy thrust to lift the economy from the current recession remains biased toward fiscal stimulus. Proposed expenditure for 2017 is N7.3tn, which is 20.4% larger than N6.1tn in 2016. Total revenue is projected at N4.9tn, 28.0% higher than N3.9tn in 2016 and fiscal deficit at N2.3tn – implying a deficit to GDP ratio of 2.2%to be financed by both domestic and foreign borrowings.

Contraction in Household Spending Drags Half Year 2016 GDP by Expenditure

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) late last month released Q1 and Q2 2016 GDP by expenditure data. Expectedly, the data showed the economy on a sticky wicket, which is in line with observations from supply side computations released for the two quarters much earlier in the year. However, the statistics give us a better view of structural and cyclical demand-side drivers of the business cycle.

Q3 2016 Trade Deficit Narrows on Currency Controls & Weaker FX Rate

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released Q3: 2016 Foreign Trade Statistics on 1st December, 2016. The report showed Q-o-Q improvement in trade deficit which narrowed to the lowest in 2016 as impact of weaker exchange rate in the period inflated exports data (reported in Naira) while currency controls pared growth in imports. Trade deficit improved 78.5% Q-o-Q to N104.1bn from N484.2bn in Q2:2016 while Merchandise trade (sum of exports and imports) rose 16.3% Q-o-Q and 17.9% Y-o-Y to N4.7tn.

MPC Maintains Status Quo but Ignores Elephant in the Room

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its scheduled 6th and final meeting for 2016 on the 21st and 22nd of November. The conclusions from the two-day deliberations were broadly in consonance with our prognosis in the Pre-MPC note; “Blunted Policy Tools Call for Rollback of Administrative Measures” where we projected that the MPC will likely hold all rates constant whilst reinstating the need for the CBN’s hierarchy to properly implement currency market reforms in order to regain waning credibility.

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