Opinion

MPC: Policy Parameters Unchanged as Fears of More Hawkish Stance Soften

As we expected in our Pre-MPC note, the Monetary Policy Committee (CBN) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) retained all policy rates during its last meeting for the year which held this week. The eleven members of the MPC in attendance unanimously voted to maintain Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14.0% with the asymmetric corridor of +200bps/-500bps, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5% and Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30.0%.

Africa –World’s Next Big Growth Market

Africa will become the world’s next big growth market, akin to the Asian boom, McKinsey, a management consulting firm said on Tuesday.

“While other geographies are seeing incremental growth, global companies that get in early and join the African champions shaping the right strategies, can sustain double-digit profit growth over the next few decades,’’ it noted.

The report drew the conclusions from a survey of 3,000 McKinsey client engagements, in-depth proprietary research and interviews with 40 of Africa’s most prominent business and development leaders.

A New Minimum Wage of ₦30,000/Month?

After over a year of negotiations, labour unions, the Federal Government and States appear to have come to an agreement to adjust the minimum wage to N30,000/month. This represents an increase of 66.7% over the current minimum wage of N18,000/month. Local media reports state that the proposed wage is yet to receive final approval from President Buhari, but we expect the President to approve it given that the FG and state governments led the negotiations.

African Free Trade Not Yet Priority

Nigeria has replied the African Union Commission and lobbyists that it is not in a hurry to pen the African Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

The decision of the federal government is hinged on the implication signing the agreement would have on the nation’s economy.

The Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Dr Adeyemi Dipeolu, said on Wednesday in Ibadan at the 60th anniversary lecture of the Department of Economics, University of Ibadan.

World Bank Approves $611m for UBE

The Word Bank has approved a grant of $611 million to strengthen Universal Basic Education and tackle challenges in education sector in Nigeria.

The Minister of Education, Alhaji Adamu Adamu, commended Word Bank for the initiative on Wednesday at the launch of Better Education Service Delivery For All (BESDA) in Birinin Kebbi .

The minister, who was represented by the Vice Chancellor, Federal University Birnin Kebbi, Prof. Bello Sheahu, said the government was grateful to the bank for the grant.

Nigeria’s Paint Industry to Hit $377m Growth by 2025

Nigeria’s paint industry is projected to record five percent growth rate from its present estimated $268 million (N96.50 billion) to $377 million (N135.80 billion) by 2025, a business expert has said.

Chris Kiwamu, Managing Consultant, Kirsten Turner Consulting, made the projection in Lagos, South-West Nigeria, during the 30th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Paint Manufacturers Association of Nigeria.

He spoke on the theme: “Strategic Roadmap for the growth of the Nigerian paint industry.”

Global Fund announces $660m grant for Nigeria

The Global Fund, an International Financing Organisation, has announced an additional humanitarian grant of 660 million dollars to tackle HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria epidemic in Nigeria.

Its Executive Director, Mr Peter Sands, announced this at a news conference on Wednesday in Abuja.

Sands noted that the grant was expected to last for a three-year period to include more people on the treatment of the diseases.

Q1:2018 GDP Report –Oil Sector Growth Propels GDP amid Non-Oil Sector Vulnerabilities

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the Q1:2018 Gross Domestic Product data earlier in the week announcing an expansion in real output of 1.95% Y-o-Y. This aligns with consensus expectations of a positive growth as the economy recorded the 4th consecutive quarterly increase since recovery from the economic recession in Q2:2017. This successive growth in output of 1.95% in Q1:2018 reflects a stronger increase of 2.87ppts relative to the first quarter of 2017 (-0.91%) but a slower growth when compared with the preceding quarter (2.11% in Q4:2017).

Pre MPC: Status Quo to be maintained on Downside Risks of Capital Flow Reversals

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to have its 2nd meeting for the year on the 21st and 22nd of May, 2018 and as with all meetings since July 2016, we expect the committee to maintain status quo on all policy rates. We expect emphasis to be placed on the need to withstand a possible pass through inflation from rising global inflation as well as protect the economy and financial markets against rising downside risk of capital flow reversals. Below are our thoughts on possible MPC considerations.

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