Opinion

Subdued Economic and Financial Market Performance in H1:2016

Broadly in line with our expectation, financial market performance in H1:2016 stayed volatile as the actions and inactions of fiscal and monetary policy authorities to lingering challenges in the economy led to weaker data. The equities market benchmark index touched a 3-Year low in January and remained subdued for most of H1:2016 but closed at 3.3% YTD following the flexible exchange rate policy framework introduced by the CBN while average yield on FGN bonds rose from 9.8% in January to 14.0% in June as macroeconomic fundamentals worsened.

Belated Fitch Downgrade: A No-Confidence Vote but ‘Sweet Spot’ Ahead

Barely a week since the marked shift in FX policy from a fixed regime to a market driven two-way quote interbank system, one of the three major Global Ratings Agency – Fitch Ratings ( the Agency) – downgraded Nigeria to ‘B+’ (highly speculative non-investment grade) with a Stable outlook from ‘BB-‘ (speculative investment grade) with Negative outlook.

How Easy Oil Money Denied Nigeria of Development

Having an easy source of revenues denied Nigeria the opportunity to engage in the critical thinking and prioritization that usually drives development according to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.

Osinbajo spoke at the launching of the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) and Port Services Support Portal (PSSP) for Nigerian Ports hosted by the Ministry of Transportation in Abuja yesterday with other top government and private sector functionaries including Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi in attendance.

New FX Policy: The CBN Segregates Banks… Who’s in, Who’s out?

Three weeks after the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) consensus decision to adopt a flexible exchange rate system, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) - Godwin Emefiele - at a press briefing on Wednesday, 15th June, 2016 announced the re-introduction of a market driven two-way quote single Interbank Foreign Exchange (FX) Market. Though ultimately inevitable, reneging of the CBN represents a policy backflip against the long-held stance of maintaining NGN/USD peg at N197.00/US$1.00.

Flexible FX Policy: The Waiting Game Continues as Fundamentals Deteriorate

The outcome of the much-anticipated 3rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the year held last month was a consensus by committee members to hold all policy rates constant and introduce greater flexibility in managing FX rate, leaving most investors’ unconvinced and at the same time cautiously optimistic, indeed excited.

The Economy After One Year of Buhari’s Administration

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) recognize the fact that the current economic situation is challenging. The global economic reality, fall in global oil prices, economic policy shortcomings and insurgency all play a very critical role in the weak economic performance of the country. In realization of these challenges, government efforts at stabilizing the economy are commendable.   We commend government’s efforts in fighting corruption which has become endemic in our system.

Full Text of President Buhari’s Democracy Day Message to Nigerians

My compatriots,

It is one year today since our administration came into office. It has been a year of triumph, consolidation, pains and achievements. By age, instinct and experience, my preference is to look forward, to prepare for the challenges that lie ahead and rededicate the administration to the task of fixing Nigeria. But I believe we can also learn from the obstacles we have overcome and the progress we made thus far, to help strengthen the plans that we have in place to put Nigeria back on the path of progress.

X-raying the “Budget of Change”...How Much Can it Achieve?

One year into the transition from President Jonathan to the Buhari led administration, the burden on Government remained the need to rejuvenate the Nigerian economy which has suffered from the declining global oil prices, poor governance structure, sub-optimal fiscal crisis and monetary policy actions. Recent domestic macroeconomic numbers have suffered from both global and domestic shocks which currently threaten the economic fundamentals of the country.

Pre-MPC Note: Monetary Policy Committee at a Crossroads

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet for its 250th meeting next week (23rd & 24th May 2016) to review global and economic developments within the last 2 months in the Nigerian economy. This is coming against the backdrop of sustained pressure on domestic output and elevated headwinds in the economy. Key indicators in the economy continue to worsen on the back of prolonged FX supply bottlenecks, delayed budget implementation, petrol market crisis, dragging consumer spending and weaker corporate earnings.

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